Donald Trump

[stylofone]

ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump leading Biden 51-42. The Post says it looks like an outlier because the other polls are all more favourable to the Dems. But be afraid.

Democrat-leaning voters favour "someone else" over Biden, 62-33.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trouble ... =103436611

[stevebrooks]

Interesting video showing some interesting trends in the US, basically polling be damned, special elections tell an entirely different story. It shows an overall 11 point lean towards Democrats basically nationwide, nearly everyone hates MAGA.

[stevebrooks]

The Dem's are trying to steal the election again, by.....checks notes, voting the Republican's out! No seriously, he actually said this!

[joele]

The Dem's are trying to steal the election again, by.....checks notes, voting the Republican's out! No seriously, he actually said this!

"Automatic voter registration (AVR) is the process by which people are automatically registered to vote as they enter their personal information into other government agencies, such as a Department of Motor Vehicles. Residents have the choice to opt out of being registered."

It was actually an election promise from the "Liberal governor", nothing to do with Obama, he won and he implemented it as promised.. sigh..

Yep sounds totally immoral, how dare you register people who live in the state to be eligible to vote..

Wonder what Trump would say about compulsory voting? lol..

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pennsyl ... =103321334

[pipbarber]

I feel very meh about these polls. The US system is so idiotically undemocratic. Trump lost 2020 by 7million votes but had he gained as few as 40,000 in key states he would have won. Only polling in the key states matters, but even then, its all a bit random feeling. And then throw in the possible magafication at the electoral college level, one or both candidates dropping dead and god knows what else, anything could happen.

And also, the US will be in the grip of an el nino summer next year, right in the middle of the primaries, how will that play out electorally? And how will the baby Murdoch roll his dice?

[Irrev-Black]

Implications?

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Andrew Feinberg
@AndrewFeinberg
NEW: If I am reading this right, Judge Engoron has found that Donald Trump committed fraud and has ordered the cancellation of all of his New York business certificates and the dissolution of the Trump Organization.

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Last edited
6:28 AM · Sep 27, 2023

ADD: Yep, implications.

https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/ ... udge-rules

[stevebrooks]

I feel very meh about these polls.

And so you should, it's likely outliers like this aren't adjusted for bias, the source of the poll was a phone poll, all phone polls in the US are done using home phone lines, most young people, and when I say young it's probably under 50's by this time as far as phone tech is concerned, have no home phone but rely on mobile. So phone polls will likely lean conservative due to the older demographic they are surveying.

Now it's easy to adjust for bias in these sorts of polls by finding out the percentage of people responding who are conservative and comparing that to the US overall percentage of conservative leaning citizens and adjusting for that, but if the poll is biased in favour of Trump I suspect that adjustment may be just conveniently....forgotten.

So all phone polls are inherently biased to the older demographic in the population and should be adjusted for bias, except political ones in favour of Trump.

[stevebrooks]

Trump appeared at a factory to give a speech to counter Biden's influence over unions and his appearance as a union friendly candidate, let's put this here;

He added a direct appeal to UAW officials.

“Hopefully,” he said, “your leaders at the United Auto Workers will endorse Donald Trump.”

The crowd cheered loudly.

You see that bit at the end, the crowd cheered loudly? Let's put that into perspective;

Trump’s speech at a nonunion auto parts company

Non-union, so no or few actual UAW members cheering when he said "your leaders"? Seems a bit curious right?

Addressing an audience of more than 300 that included only a few of the striking workers, Trump ascribed the auto industry’s problems to foreign trade deals he has long railed against — pacts that Biden and even many Republicans have supported in the past.

Seems all a bit staged, non-union workers, was it a compulsory meeting? I mean these guys can just be told to turn up by the bosses, probably no protection from being sacked, no labour protections.

Some of the people present seem a bit.....well, biased;

“I don’t think the president of the United States should be sticking his nose into contract negotiations between businesses, companies and workers,” he said. “President Trump’s here today to talk about what he accomplished during his first term and what he hopes to accomplish during his second term.”

He accomplished very little in his first term, oh the GOP tax cuts and 10 trillion debt that's right, and closed auto factories, and as far as what he hopes to accomplish in his second term, I have watched quite a bit of Trump stuff, and most of what he seems to want to accomplish is...to put it bluntly, revenge. Locking people up, indicting them with no evidence, there's been no policy statements at all as far as I can tell except to criticize policies and accomplishments of Biden.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... rcna117115

[stevebrooks]

A few more details, for a start it was "invite only" so the few UAW workers there were probably in fact Trump supporters. The head of the UAW said of the rally;

A pathetic irony that Trump would hold a rally for union workers at a non-union business

So that appeal to the union bosses didn't go down well!

[stevebrooks]

Whoops Apocalypse, things just get worse, seems there weren't actually many, if any auto-workers in the crowd at all;

About 400 to 500 Trump supporters were inside a Drake Enterprises facility for the speech. Drake Enterprises employs about 150 people, and the UAW doesn't represent its workforce. It wasn't clear how many auto workers were in the crowd for the speech, which was targeted at them.

One individual in the crowd who held a sign that said "union members for Trump," acknowledged that she wasn't a union member when approached by a Detroit News reporter after the event. Another person with a sign that read "auto workers for Trump" said he wasn't an auto worker when asked for an interview. Both people didn't provide their names.

So invite only and rent a crowd, they weren't going to let any possible union member hecklers in there, so that's a big nope for Trump.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 960155007/