Australian Atheists Forum

Might as well try a thread for this.

It occurred to me last night that this might be a good election to lose. The prospect for the next PM is to spend the next three years having to deal with Trump/maga, deflect the daily fallout, be threatened, having god only knows what demands made, a continual walk on egg shells - fucking hell, it'll be an ongoing diplomatic nightmare.

Maybe that's a silver lining for the ALP, should they lose. They may also get the opportunity to reassess the direction of the party (though i doubt it). I mean they haven't been a total disaster in terms of governance and stability. They betrayed the environment, they lied about their commitment to addressing climate change, they've attacked the NDIS, they've not touched the basic structure of the neo-liberal economy and there's been no significant increase to welfare poverty payments - but they've been steady, basically competent and more or less free of scandal. What lessons would they take from a one term government?

I worry for the green vote, and the teal vote. I worry we might get some Trump adjacent crazy freak people winning seats. The whole thing is a worry, quite frankly.

Setting aside basic human decency as a factor, is standing up to Trump an electoral liability or a smart strategy? It's quite possible that after another two months of maga insanity, aligning yourself too closely with Washington might be a huge turn off.

Anyway, just some initial thoughts. Here's a recent poll.

https://politicalpulse.net/australia-po ... ions-2025/

The other poll (betting odds)..

From TAB

Labor - 2.55
Liberal - 1.5

But also from TAB

Majority Government - 2.5
Minority Government - 1.48

Which is interesting combination as if it is going to be a minority government I dare say it will be a Labor one with the Greens (and Teals), which I imagine will be a shit show with Trump in the US. But that will probably be the case regardless.

On the way to the shops I saw the local markets were on and the Labor and Liberal candidates had marquees. I had a rant at the Labor MP first, it was all about Trump and how the conservatives who support him are evil or deluded, and maybe those in the latter category will work it out, but if they don't she might lose her set.

Then I went to the Liberal tent. Andrew Constance wasn't there, there were a couple of his geriatric goons staffing the card table. I chose to give them a spray about how Trump is toxic for Australia and the world, and Constance is too Trumpy for my liking, and the old bloke said words to the effect of "Trump's not that bad actually". Doesn't take much to unmask them.

I could have given them a spray about how mendacious Constance is for being all climate conscious after black summer, but now he's in full Scummo mode. It looks like he's taking on the role of saying the climate-denying bit out loud while Dutton bleats about some other bullshit. Horrific.

We will of course get the government we deserve.......

wolty wrote: ↑Mon Mar 03, 2025 3:19 pm We will of course get the government we deserve.......

Wolty, as someone involved in the party, what's your assessment of the ALP's chances of retaining government, even in a minority arrangement? Could you summarize the feeling of your local branch? Optimistic? Nervous?

I know i gave an earful to a poor volunteer from labor that called me for a donation, (obviously i didn't get personal and i'm happy to be on their lists), but i made my disappointment clear and, no, i won't be giving money. Is that typical, do you reckon?

Just btw...i did end that phone conversation by saying i hope to fuck Albo is still PM in June.

pipbarber wrote: ↑Mon Mar 03, 2025 4:43 pm

wolty wrote: ↑Mon Mar 03, 2025 3:19 pm We will of course get the government we deserve.......

Wolty, as someone involved in the party, what's your assessment of the ALP's chances of retaining government, even in a minority arrangement? Could you summarize the feeling of your local branch? Optimistic? Nervous?

I know i gave an earful to a poor volunteer from labor that called me for a donation, (obviously i didn't get personal and i'm happy to be on their lists), but i made my disappointment clear and, no, i won't be giving money. Is that typical, do you reckon?

Just btw...i did end that phone conversation by saying i hope to fuck Albo is still PM in June.

To be honest mate, I've got no idea. I haven't done a lot so far (been busy with work), some sign waving that has been/seems to be quite/very positive. But I am in Jim Chalmers electorate and he is super popular here. I've been to the electorate office a bit and it is ramping up.

What I am worried about is that silent shit that happened in the USA election. How much will the young white male vote influence the election. The thing I hold on to is that we aren't the USA.

I heard the election will be 12th April and will be called straight after the WA election so next Monday? 30 day campaign.

There's certainly been some missteps and I get the feeling that the powers that be have heard that. Stuff like the Palestine response, the environment and so on. The first cut in interest rates even quite insignificant was at least something.

I'd say fingers crossed. I'd be surprised if the Coalition had a big win. I'd be leaning more to a hung parliament.

What has me a little confused is the fact Dutton has to win quite a few seats off Labor. I very much doubt he'll get any teal seats back and possibly will lose one or two to the Teals.

That's why he's chasing outer suburban Labor seats. Hence the comment, we will get the government we deserve. If morons vote for him. Will the racist redneck misogynistic male vote get him over the line? Not sure it will.

wolty wrote: ↑Mon Mar 03, 2025 5:14 pm What has me a little confused is the fact Dutton has to win quite a few seats off Labor. I very much doubt he'll get any teal seats back and possibly will lose one or two to the Teals.

That's why he's chasing outer suburban Labor seats. Hence the comment, we will get the government we deserve. If morons vote for him. Will the racist redneck misogynistic male vote get him over the line? Not sure it will.

Without looking at the electoral maps nation wide, i know in Melbourne the libs only hold outer suburban seats. I'm assuming that's the case, at least to some degree, everywhere.

https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federa ... ts-map.pdf

This is Melbourne. The only lib seats are in the outer eastern 'burbs. My concern is that they'll eat into the teal vote and win back their two traditional inner suburban seats here in Melbourne, the old money crowd. Some of those western seats are very marginal but there's a decent level of new citizens out there and i can't see them going for Dutton.

Just as an aside, Duttons seat is the most marginal LNP seat in Qld. He's on 1.7%......

wolty wrote: ↑Mon Mar 03, 2025 6:27 pm Just as an aside, Duttons seat is the most marginal LNP seat in Qld. He's on 1.7%......

Oh yes, i'll be praying at the election gods for him to lose it!