Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

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stevebrooks
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by stevebrooks »

joele wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:44 pm
stevebrooks wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:17 pmso it relies on data purely from Li-ion batteries currently in use, so as battery technology advances these myths will become ever more irrelevant;
Yeah some advances have already dated the article but as you say only for the better.. I.e. LFP batteries like BYD make have no nickel or cobalt at all and last even longer than those lithium cobalt batteries. Improving two of the points re longevity and cobalt mining.

Good article overall though, some good ammunition in it ;-)
Yeah one of the really interesting points it does make is that detractors of EV's almost always use the full impact of the cars original, mining, manufacture, electric generation cost, environmental impact and etc, and then compare it to ICE cars without taking into account the environmental impact of oil drilling and transport, refining etc, usually just using the manufacture impact and the fuel use.

My personal opinion is that the changeover to full EV will actually happen sooner than the governments are planning, one of the mistakes governments always make is to think they are in control of what are disruptive technology changes and that they can set the agenda. The penetration of EV's into societies is already advancing ahead of predictions,it wouldn't surprise me if in 5 years the fossil fuel industry was all but collapsed. It always brings to mind Neil deGrasse Tyson's comment when questioned about the disastrous impacts changing all cars over to EV's would have on society, job losses, industry collapses etc.

What he said was essentially this, all my paraphrasing because I can't be bothered hunting out the exact text; In the late 1800's early 1900's the horse industry was an entire economy, supporting millions of workers, there were more horses per person in the US than there were people, farriers, coach makers, stables, blacksmiths, in fact entire towns existed just around stage coach stops, children walked around following coaches in cities to pick up horse crap and so many etc's it's probably impossible to list them all here, it's penetration into society was huge. In 10 years that entire horse based economy just vanished, replaced by motor cars. No-one at the time cars first appeared would in their wildest imaginations have predicted such an outcome, it would have been horrifying to them, but we are still here. Horses are still here to, but they are an expensive hobby, a niche industry in all western countries.

In essence change, when society has decided that change is necessary by whatever method or magic it uses, will happen no matter what industry leaders think or want, no matter what governments plan or decide, and it will happen at the rate the people move, they're just along for the ride, we're all just along for the ride! I think it will happen faster than any predictions or plans, whether it's in time to prevent catastrophic global warming, well that's another subject altogether!
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stylofone
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by stylofone »

stevebrooks wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 2:03 amYeah one of the really interesting points it does make is that detractors of EV's almost always use the full impact of the cars original, mining, manufacture, electric generation cost, environmental impact and etc, and then compare it to ICE cars without taking into account the environmental impact of oil drilling and transport, refining etc, usually just using the manufacture impact and the fuel use.
A lot of that is misinformation, outright lies from the fossil fuel industry, probably Russia, the Murdoch press feeding conspiracy theories and people who have bought into the political confection which encompasses them.

It bemuses me to hear about the effect of energy prices on the cost of living crisis. I don't have an EV yet, but I'm on target for having enough rooftop solar to provide ALL my household energy including all car charging except long journeys. So energy including petrol is approaching free once you pay for the hardware.

This doesn't change my view that EV ownership is currently not a climate solution. It's not as bad as fossil fuel cars, but it still makes the problem worse. The central role of the car industry in promoting consumerism is also an impediment. For example, the brand name "Build Your Dreams" makes me want to puke.
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stevebrooks
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by stevebrooks »

stylofone wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 6:52 am This doesn't change my view that EV ownership is currently not a climate solution. It's not as bad as fossil fuel cars, but it still makes the problem worse. The central role of the car industry in promoting consumerism is also an impediment. For example, the brand name "Build Your Dreams" makes me want to puke.
Yep you do have a valid argument there, the only real solution for climate change is to change entirely how society works and a good start is by removing fossil fuels entirely from the energy mix, but as long as society continues the way it is and the majority of people rely on cars for, well, just about everything, the only way to achieve that is to remove cars from that fossil fuel equation, but you can't just take them all away, that won't work, but you can remove their reliance on fossil fuels.

On another note, I have noticed a sudden increase in EV doom articles both online and off shortly following the announcement of the development of cars based on solid state sodium salt batteries, of course this is exactly what you would expect from an industry that is seeing it's end written clearly.

But yes, I see your point, the necessity of car ownership is driven by the way society and cities are structured. Arguably a person living in or near a major city should never need to own a car, but they are structured in such a way that a car is necessary just for surviving, and funnily enough every time this is brought up and solutions offered, 15 minute cities for instance, there's an outcry and a flood of conspiracy theories that are probably pushed by the very industry that pushes car ownership. It would be far cheaper for people living in cities to not own a car at all and get around by public transport, uber, EV scooters, bikes and other methods and just hire a car for long trips when they need it, after all most cars just sit in peoples driveways all day, and even when they do that they are costing money in licensing and slow deterioration of tires, electronics, batteries etc.

The real solution to climate change is to build a society that doesn't cause climate change, but I don't see that happening for the next hundred years minimum, so we need to do what we can now, and owning and EV rather than a ICE vehicle is a small step that individuals can actually take to help.
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joele
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by joele »

stylofone wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 6:52 amFor example, the brand name "Build Your Dreams" makes me want to puke.
Yeah I got to say I debadged the car over the weekend, it's gone... LMAO

On a more serious note, one thing I do like about the electric cars released so far is they are shrinking again.. Sure the Atto 3 is an SUV but it is slightly smaller in external dimensions than a Mazda CX5 which is on the smaller end of family SUVs..

The other interesting thing to note is a CX5 is the SAME weight as the extended range (large battery) BYD Atto 3, so much for all the FUD that electric cars are super heavy due to batteries and LFP batteries are the heaviest kind.

The sedan they are releasing (Seal) is heavier though due to multiple motors and even bigger battery to give stupid performance figures in premium and performance models, being 5.4 and 3.8 seconds 0-100kmh.. I hope they get over that as you really don't need that level of performance on the road.
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stylofone
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by stylofone »

joele wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2023 6:47 pmYeah I got to say I debadged the car over the weekend, it's gone... LMAO
I like the idea of debadging but I've never bothered to do it. If/when I replace my current vehicle I'll try to use my new car momentum to do it then. Maybe I could as the dealer to do it when they go through that excruciating interrogation to get you to buy window tinting etc. "Hmmm, I don't want window tinting, but how much does it cost to remove your cringe-inducing branding all over the car?" I'm sure that would go down well.
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joele
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by joele »

stylofone wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2023 7:09 pmMaybe I could as the dealer to do it when they go through that excruciating interrogation to get you to buy window tinting etc.
I hate that, I thought it was great buying the Atto 3 online as those questions were just options you could tick (or preferably not) but no annoying pressure tactics. Also no price negotiation stress. just one price for everyone regardless of how well you can negotiate.

I was disappointed a few days later as the dealer called to up-sell me.. At least it was a phone call and I could say "no thank-you" and hang up on them (with a polite "have a nice day") when they didn't take no for an answer.. lol..

I am finding the fraternity weird, when you fill up, particularly at the free sites, where other EV drivers want to chat and ask how your going and share the smugness of driving an EV.. I wonder how long that will last.
"Now this is the command: Do to the doer to make him do." - The Eloquent Peasant (2040–1650 BCE)

“Religion the protector of the well fed and consoler of the hungry.” - Mikhail Bakunin
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Irrev-Black
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by Irrev-Black »

This chap across the pond is retrofitting an older car with 'leccy stuff, but is generally EV-centred on his Mastodon account. (He does occasionally start on about potatoes!)

https://kolektiva.social/deck/@KiwiEV@mastodon.nz

Greedy fuckers cannot self-regulate.
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nibble
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by nibble »

stevebrooks wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 2:03 am

My personal opinion is that the changeover to full EV will actually happen sooner than the governments are planning, one of the mistakes governments always make is to think they are in control of what are disruptive technology changes and that they can set the agenda. The penetration of EV's into societies is already advancing ahead of predictions,it wouldn't surprise me if in 5 years the fossil fuel industry was all but collapsed. It always brings to mind Neil deGrasse Tyson's comment when questioned about the disastrous impacts changing all cars over to EV's would have on society, job losses, industry collapses etc.

Aussies purchase around 1 million cars a year. There are approx. 20 million registered vehicles in Australia. If all vehicles sold in Oz were EVs, then it's 10+ years before 50% are full electric and a further 10 before all were. Realistically, more like 30 years before we're full electric.

I too am seeing a lot of anti-EV sentiment online. Mostly around charging infrastructure and how it is seriously lacking.
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stevebrooks
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by stevebrooks »

nibble wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:28 pm
stevebrooks wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 2:03 am

My personal opinion is that the changeover to full EV will actually happen sooner than the governments are planning, one of the mistakes governments always make is to think they are in control of what are disruptive technology changes and that they can set the agenda. The penetration of EV's into societies is already advancing ahead of predictions,it wouldn't surprise me if in 5 years the fossil fuel industry was all but collapsed. It always brings to mind Neil deGrasse Tyson's comment when questioned about the disastrous impacts changing all cars over to EV's would have on society, job losses, industry collapses etc.

Aussies purchase around 1 million cars a year. There are approx. 20 million registered vehicles in Australia. If all vehicles sold in Oz were EVs, then it's 10+ years before 50% are full electric and a further 10 before all were. Realistically, more like 30 years before we're full electric.

I too am seeing a lot of anti-EV sentiment online. Mostly around charging infrastructure and how it is seriously lacking.
That's a point for discussion for sure, but there are factors you are omitting that will affect electric car take up and that electric car take up is very likely to increase as more and more EV's take to the road. One of the things missing, for instance, is fuel pricing. You see currently fossil fuels are cheap at the end point, ludicrously cheap in fact, consider that if the number of ICE vehicles on the road were the same as EV's what effect would that have on the price of fossil fuels? The current low price of fossil fuels reflect a mass market effect, as the number of ICE cars drops this mass market effect starts to diminish and fuel prices increase, to the point where when the number of ICE cars drop below a certain point that price increase could become astronomical.

Next is fueling points, at the moment we have petrol stations everywhere, when the number of ICE vehicles drop so will the need for these petrol stations, many will go out of business, or adapt to providing charging stations for EV's, but with people charging at home and office there's suddenly going to be a drop in easy availability of fuel.

Next is fossil fuel shortages due to refineries having to close due to the lower demand, they can't just keep pumping it into tanks forever, they can't maintain the same rate of processing they were designed for because the demand no longer exists. Some of them will disappear altogether, the vast fleet of ships that ferry fossil fuel around the world will eventually become mostly abandoned hulks, oil fields will have to pump less because there's less demand, decreasing profitability and increasing prices. At the moment they are in charge of prices, they put them up and down whenever they want, but what happens when no-one wants their product, many will shut down, prices will increase. Australia is a tiny market all things considered for fossil fuels, we don't take enough that we can affect changes worldwide.

I would predict it will seem to go slowly for quite a while and seem to fit in with current projections, until it suddenly doesn't and ICE vehicle ownership will drop dramatically. The closest analogy in modern times I suppose is the sudden changeover to smart phones, they were dismissed, put down by existing phone makers like Motorola and Nokia, described as a fad, nothing to worry about, until suddenly no-one was buying the old phones anymore and the old makers either went broke or adapted, and new makers took over, Apple, Samsung etc.

There will be a sudden point where the cost of running a ICE motor vehicle for everyday use will become unaffordable even for short distances and patently ridiculous, and I expect that point will come far faster than most people think. Now that's not to say they will vanish altogether, we still have horses around, but they will be niche objects, collectibles, rich people toys only.

My major gripe is that electric car makers still make and price electric cars like luxury vehicles, even the budget car makers, but of course a lot of that is simply the battery cost and that should drop a lot in the near future. As for charging stations, yes that's an issue, but it's an issue due to the projections they are using, they are expecting many decades to build out the charging network, and that's probably not going to work.
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joele
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Re: Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

Post by joele »

nibble wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:28 pm I too am seeing a lot of anti-EV sentiment online. Mostly around charging infrastructure and how it is seriously lacking.
There is a lack in certain areas and plenty in others but the problem is also non EVs parking in the EV charging spots, blocking them.

I joined a facefail group called ICEholes and EVholes.. EVholes are EV owners that park in charging spots, but not charging, ICEholes are just non EV cars parking in EV charging spots.. People post up pictures of what they see around Australia, I have seen a few myself already (ICEholes)..

The saddest thing is in a half empty carpark, ICE cars parking over two (or more) EV charger spot blocking them intentionally. Some even leave notes on their windshield to stick it to the EV drivers.

The truck driver in the 2nd pic was apparently a rude prick, parked across them and when he eventually finished his meal he came out to see two Teslas waiting to charge. He said to them that he supposes they want him to move so they could charge, they said "Yes" and he said it is pronounced "Yes Please".. Personally I think the correct pronunciation was "yes, you selfish arsehat" but that's just me.

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"Now this is the command: Do to the doer to make him do." - The Eloquent Peasant (2040–1650 BCE)

“Religion the protector of the well fed and consoler of the hungry.” - Mikhail Bakunin
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