Electric + Human-Powered Vehicles

[nibble]

The problem with these newer manufacturers (and there seems to be a new one every week), despite producing good quality with long range etc.., is the lack of a broad dealer network. When your out in remote areas in need of a spare part you could be left stranded. Toyota, for example, have dealerships everywhere and lot's of local garages stock their parts (heaps of aftermarket too). Something to consider if you intend using these vehicles for touring.

[stevebrooks]

The problem with these newer manufacturers (and there seems to be a new one every week), despite producing good quality with long range etc.., is the lack of a broad dealer network. When your out in remote areas in need of a spare part you could be left stranded. Toyota, for example, have dealerships everywhere and lot's of local garages stock their parts (heaps of aftermarket too). Something to consider if you intend using these vehicles for touring.

Oh yes, that's sure to be an issue until they get some sort of proper system established, but whether it's a big issue depends on the failure rate as well as insurance coverage type. I mean if they just grab the car and pop it on a tow truck and give me another car to continue on my way, that's not a problem as long as they process it and get the car to me in a day or two. So that's certain to even out after a while, but I think things are going to go pear shaped for ICE cars a lot faster than most people are predicting or expects, it's the "touch phone" effect all over again.

I mean there are plenty of places that now have phase out dates for sale of new ICE vehicles, all in the 2030 to 2040 range....I simply don't think things are going to work out like that. Government mandates are almost always wrong in one direction or another, and in this case I think they are vastly overestimating the length of time ICE cars will actually be manufactured and sold. ICE care manufacturing plants are closing all over the place, workers being laid off by big companies, and once the big companies go most small companies will follow. Huge layoffs and factories closing at Ford, Honda and Nissan merging, things unthinkable 5 years ago, in 5 years I would be surprised if any of them are left, as in still manufacturers of ICE vehicles, some may successfully transition to EV's, but like the phone companies some will just fade away to obscurity.

I mean if you have a mandate of no new ICE car registrations or sales from 2040 onwards, as many countries do, it's going to look rather silly if there are no new ICE vehicles actually available from after 2030. Anyway that's my prediction, expect the death of ICE vehicle manufacturing around the 2030's. There will still be plenty of old ones around, but good luck buying a new one!

[stylofone]

The problem with these newer manufacturers (and there seems to be a new one every week), despite producing good quality with long range etc.., is the lack of a broad dealer network. When your out in remote areas in need of a spare part you could be left stranded. Toyota, for example, have dealerships everywhere and lot's of local garages stock their parts (heaps of aftermarket too). Something to consider if you intend using these vehicles for touring.

Related to this is the need for cars to be made to last a lot longer. There is a wikipedia page on car longevity which refers to some of the possibilities for EVs to dramatically improve on this because of the durability of the motors, and also the potential for simpler construction and repairability. But I also wonder about the Chinese industrial and marketing model which could take it in the other direction, encouraging people to upgrade their cars sooner because of fashion, marketing, and prestige.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity

[stevebrooks]

The problem with these newer manufacturers (and there seems to be a new one every week), despite producing good quality with long range etc.., is the lack of a broad dealer network. When your out in remote areas in need of a spare part you could be left stranded. Toyota, for example, have dealerships everywhere and lot's of local garages stock their parts (heaps of aftermarket too). Something to consider if you intend using these vehicles for touring.

Related to this is the need for cars to be made to last a lot longer. There is a wikipedia page on car longevity which refers to some of the possibilities for EVs to dramatically improve on this because of the durability of the motors, and also the potential for simpler construction and repairability. But I also wonder about the Chinese industrial and marketing model which could take it in the other direction, encouraging people to upgrade their cars sooner because of fashion, marketing, and prestige.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity

On a related note, it's likely batteries and and drive motors are going to actually last a lot longer than the actual car, when I say actual car I mean bodies, and other interesting bits people like, seats, electronic equipment etc. I can see a thriving business in repurposing batteries that are still in good condition, drive motors in good working condition. I mean most electric car conversions use Tesla drive motors at the moment, but that's probably because Tesla's manage to actually crash, a lot. As for batteries, many cars are now being designed for electricity feed in to the house and grid, like a wall battery, I can see a lot of future use for those, I mean if they still have years of use in them why recycle them, cheap house battery banks.

When you look up the average lifespan of cars it tells me 8 years, 240k kms, that is quite low to me, my daily runner is 17 years old, beach car probably closer to 30 years, but the cost of replacing motors in a car that old is prohibitive, once the motor goes it's simply not worth it, but electric motors, there's a huge industry in rewinding electric motors because in many cases it's actually cheaper to rewind and refurbish them than it is to simply replace them. Simply by design electric cars, at least the base chassis and running gear, is cheaper and more reliable then the same ICE components so there's no reason they shouldn't last longer. The one factor that does concern me for longevity is all the electronics they fill them with, I can't see a lot of that lasting the same length of time.

[nibble]

Yes the electronics will be an issue but maybe not as you think. I suspect with the increase in connectivity and requirements to be "online", much like an old mobile phone, your car will be rendered useless without the latest kit and or software updates. It is creeping in (over the air updates, subscription based features etc..) and is sadly the direction we are headed. Car manufacturers are looking at alternatives in keeping that revenue stream flowing and governments love it because they can track, disable your vehicle if need be etc.

[stevebrooks]

Hyundai suddenly announce solid state batteries coming online for limited production and use in EV's in 2025, mass production will take a few more years, but this is a first announcement from Hyundai about solid state batteries from their own research and development, maybe been keeping it quiet t surprise other car manufacturers and get a dead start on them;

[Loki]

Sales of Chinese EVs have slumped in Europe after tariffs were applied to negate the Chinese Government subsidies. All Chinese EV companies but specifically byd, greely and saic.

Sales of Chinese EVs in the US are virtually nonexistent due to the tariffs applied to negate Chinese government subsidies.

There are continual issues being reported with quality, rust and mechanical issues.

There are issues with spare part stocks.

Byd is in the shit for building a factory in Brazil with imported slave labour.

Volkswagen is in the shit after being incompetent enough to allow real time public access to owner id and vehicle location for their entire fleet (lets ignore the question of why they need this data in the first place).

So 4 of the top 5 EV companies are dodgy as. And the 5th is Tesla.

Methinks EV domination may take a little longer than the pundits are claiming.

[stevebrooks]

Got to seriously watch those numbers, sales of ALL cars dropped in Europe in 2024, not just EV's. To focus on EV's and not mention dropping sales of ICE vehicles also is of course used by a lot of EV opponents in their articles. Best to always cross check with other sources.

Let's look at new car registrations by power source comparing 2023 to 2034 (first number 2023);

Petrol: 34% to 29.8%

Diesel: 12.8% to 10.4%

Hybrid Electric: 27.4% to 32.8%

BEV: 14.8% to 17.3%

PHEV: 8.2% to 6.8%

Other: 2.8% to 2.9% (not sure, hydrogen fuel cell and other technologies?)

So proportionally registrations of new ICE vehicles fell far more than any of the electric versions, and most of the electric versions actually increased quite a bit.

Petrol and diesel cars

In September 2024, petrol car sales dropped by 17.9%, with all four key markets recording double-digit declines: France (-31.9%), Italy (-23.3%), Germany (-15.2%), and Spain (‑10.7%). Petrol cars now represent 29.8% of the market, down from 34% in the same month last year. The diesel car market saw a decline of 23.5%, resulting in a 10.4% share of the market last September. Overall, decreases were observed in two-thirds of EU markets.

So no it's not actually caused by tariffs, there's a general decline in car sales in Europe, but the largest decline is actually by Petrol and Diesel models. How much effect the tariffs will have remains to be seen, but keep in mind many Chinese car companies now actually have manufacturing plants in the EU so will not be affected by tariffs much at all.

https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/ ... sales-5-8/

[Loki]

What does any of that have to do with my post?

[stevebrooks]

What does any of that have to do with my post?

Sales of Chinese EVs have slumped in Europe

Sales of all cars have slumped in Europe, so saying that Chinese EV car sales have slumped in Europe doesn't give the entire picture, sales of ICE cars have slumped also, it gives the impression that only EV sales from China have slumped due to tariffs, whereas there are factors other than just import tariffs that are causing a car sales slump, not all the drop in Chinese EV car sales is necessarily from the tariff application. These other factors would also need to be taken into account to actually determine how much the tariffs are causing Chinese EV car sales to drop.