Donald Trump

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stevebrooks
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by stevebrooks »

pipbarber wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:23 amThe article contains a list of recent polls, which make for alarming reading. However, as is constantly noted, polling is woefully unreliable for many reasons and there is still 8 months to go and anything can happen, especially given Trumps legal issues
And oh what a fucking surprise!
It turns out, the NYT/Sienna poll oversampled rural voters by a whopping 84% in excess of their true proportion of the electorate. Let’s be clear about something: THAT’S INSANE. No wonder Joe Biden is getting clobbered in the polls; the people answering these polls are a bunch of Trump lovers in rural areas. And this would also account for Biden’s supposed “slippage” among black, latino and young voters; they’re over-polling minorities and young people who live in rural areas. This is probably why Donald Trump has under-performed his average-of-polls in all four early states; Nikki Haley does best among urban Republicans who are being drastically under-sampled.

Here’s what makes my head explode: If you take the results of the urban/suburban/rural percentages between Biden and Trump in the New York Times/Sienna poll, and then readjust them to the proportions of each type of voter in the 2020 exit polling, Biden actually wins among both registered and likely voters.
So no adjustment for bias at all in the poll, it almost appears, oh I don't know.....purposeful?

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pipbarber
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by pipbarber »

All this is very reasonable and analytically sensible but, again, i think we're looking at the wrong analytics. It really doesn't matter that Trump is deranged, or intellectually enfeebled, or barely capable of constructing a sentence - none of it matters. Has either candidate offered up an actual real policy? Maybe they have but no one cares. That is not the point. Trump represents...(insert whatever crazy arse conspiracy, religious theory, neoliberal economic theory, 'freedom' etc). Trump is your guy, if you subscribe to any of that shit. It truly makes no difference how he is. He could shit himself in public, run from jail, eat a baby on live TV and 70 million would still vote for him. And all he needs is a couple of hundred thousand votes in the purple states and he wins.

This election is a fucking knife edge.
'The ultimate, hidden truth of the world is that it is something that we make, and could just as easily make differently.' David Graeber
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pipbarber
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by pipbarber »

stevebrooks wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 5:29 pm

So no adjustment for bias at all in the poll, it almost appears, oh I don't know.....purposeful?
If it is purposeful in order to terrify people, i'm kind of ok with that. If Trump leading in the polls is going to ensure people go out and actually vote for Biden, i'd be hoping for more of this polling.
'The ultimate, hidden truth of the world is that it is something that we make, and could just as easily make differently.' David Graeber
stevebrooks
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by stevebrooks »

pipbarber wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:09 pmThat is not the point. Trump represents...(insert whatever crazy arse conspiracy, religious theory, neoliberal economic theory, 'freedom' etc). Trump is your guy, if you subscribe to any of that shit. It truly makes no difference how he is. He could shit himself in public, run from jail, eat a baby on live TV and 70 million would still vote for him. And all he needs is a couple of hundred thousand votes in the purple states and he wins.
And none of that matters,it's entirely irrelevant to the results of the election. It was explained the other day in one of the blogs, if you are going to vote for a candidate regardless of what he says, does, doesn't say, doesn't do, then you aren't really taking part in the election, oh you are voting, but none of the candidates need do anything to appeal to you, they need spend no money trying to get your vote, they need spend no effort to talk to you, provide for your needs, or protect you from anything, even your own stupidity.

What Trump is essentially doing is spending huge amounts of time, money and effort holding rallies and making speeches that essentially will make no difference in the election, because these people are already going to vote for him no matter what, his entire pitch, and his only pitch, is to attack the democrats so that gets taken up by the right leaning media, which also for the most part is projecting to that same demographic, people whoa re already going to vote for Trump. The Democrats meanwhile are appealing to that part of the electorate that aren't died in the wool Trump supporters, in this election they are the only ones that count, and it's their leanings that need to be assessed, they are the ones who can be swayed one way or the other.

By all account it seems to be working, Democrats aren't just slightly fund raising Republicans, they are out raising and outspending Republicans in every area, and when you consider that all those Trump fanatics just sending in money to Trump and the Republican to the point where many of them are ending up destitute, well that's significant. It's even more significant because when was the last time you saw and an ad online from Democrats asking for money? I can't ever recall actually seeing a single one, yet the right leaning media is flooded with them for Trump and the Republicans.

So while Trump appeals to his base, which is essentially fixed in size and probably won't change, The Democrats appear to be doing the needed legwork to appeal to voters who do matter, not just their base but the ones who do actually matter in an election. Trump thinks all he needs is his base, but as mentioned many times, he's essentially an idiot and has driven away anyone who tries to talk sense to him, and he continues to drive away even some of the voters who would normally vote republican.

But lets face it, just about every US election comes down to a few states, the entire system is designed around that premise, that some states are blue and never vote red, some states are red and never vote blue, and some go one way or the other and they are the ones that politicians hit heavily, so in the end every election comes down to a few hundred thousand votes even if the winner actually wins by 7 million votes. It's a stupid system, why the popular vote doesn't elect the President is weird but it's their way, if it did they would have had a decade and a half of Democrats in the Presidential office and Trump would still be a billionaire pervert running around uncharged with any crimes.
stevebrooks
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by stevebrooks »

Well, Super Tuesday is all but done, Trump of course winning most states but losing Vermont to Haley, Biden winning every state. However by all accounts Trump has apparently hugely under-performed in ALL states compared to polling numbers, with Virginia recording -21% compared to pre-primary polls, which just emphasises the point that polls are indeed broken in this modern world of ours, they were designed for an earlier and less frenetic age. So I wouldn't be putting to much weight on Trump's poll numbers regarding the election, we just have to hope with this in mind that the good polling for Trump, even if it's wrong, brings out the Democrat and swing voters en-masse to defeat him resoundingly.

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wolty
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by wolty »

I think at this stage it's Trumps election to lose. Biden is a liability for the Dems, he's simply too old. Trump comes across as much younger even though he isn't. He (Trump) does the cool relatable shit well. Biden is dottery and out of touch.

Trumps issue is the legal problems he has. For the time being he will power up with the legal problems. But it will come to pass sooner or later that his continued guilty verdicts will hurt him with swinging voters.

I can't find it at the moment but I read an article about how the Supreme Court is judging cases for Trump that he is likely to win (Arizona ballot case) and dragging it's heals on other cases Trump could be in trouble with.
stevebrooks
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by stevebrooks »

wolty wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:42 pm I think at this stage it's Trumps election to lose. Biden is a liability for the Dems, he's simply too old. Trump comes across as much younger even though he isn't. He (Trump) does the cool relatable shit well. Biden is dottery and out of touch.
That's exactly what the right wing media want people to think, but it only gets to people who watch a lot of right wing media. Trump doesn't actually do the cool relatable shit at all, he does toddler shit which people think is cool shit relatable to younger voters, and I think that's simply not true at all.
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pipbarber
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by pipbarber »

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ory-speech

I actually enjoyed the tone of this article by David Smith. Feels like it was written through the splayed fingers of a face palm. Is predictable horror real horror, does it not need an element of surprise to really terrify? This is Trump's victory speech and it was grim and dark and depressing and so so predictable. His electoral strategy is pretty obvious, we're being invaded and we need to sell fossil fuels. (Translated into Australian - stop the boats and mining boom).

He's so fucking weird. If he wins in November i can see him standing on the stage, forlorn looking, by himself with no family anywhere near him, except perhaps his terrible elder sons eyeing off another gravy train. He'll spend the first year of his presidency trying to end all the law suits and charges and court appearances and fines. It's the only reason he wants to be president, he doesn't give a shit about anything, at least that is the impression i get.

Beside the fascist rhetoric, the biggest risk is that he's so obviously in need of money Trump 2.0 will be a presidency for sale. Every autocrat on the planet will be salivating at the prospect.
'The ultimate, hidden truth of the world is that it is something that we make, and could just as easily make differently.' David Graeber
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stylofone
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by stylofone »

The summary is compelling.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/se ... 1juVJr?t=0
I can feel it
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MissGreen
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by MissGreen »

stylofone wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:38 pm The summary is compelling.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/se ... 1juVJr?t=0
When you just lay it out it's like having someone explain a movie or video game badguy. Which i guess makes sense for a nation that lives in a fantasy of manifest destiny and vampire paedophile (((globalists)))
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