Climate Change

[Irrev-Black]

(snippage happened)

On this occasion, the neighbour-eenie didn't let it pass, he said "I was looking at some of the fossils on one of the cliffs the other day, they've been around for 50 million years, so don't worry, the world isn't going to end any time soon."

"Tell that to the fossils, mungrafungler!"

[pipbarber]

One of the reasons 1.5 degrees is seen as a benchmark is that it will hit the poorest countries first. But the fragility of the globalised economy makes me think it will also be accompanied by global food inflation, and poor people living among us here in rich Australia will feel that. Then I wonder about any knock-on effects: currency contagions, market crashes, hyper-inflation, recessions, etc. Those things will get televised.

We're already at 1.5 in Australia (2022) and this year is tracking hotter than last year. Doesn't really make much sense for us here to be thinking about 1.5, under 2 degrees is more the target here.

Earlier this week I was making small talk with one of the neighbours. I can't help it, I now make dark climate change references when discussing the weather. On this occasion, the neighbour-eenie didn't let it pass, he said "I was looking at some of the fossils on one of the cliffs the other day, they've been around for 50 million years, so don't worry, the world isn't going to end any time soon." There was a subtle rebuke in his comment. Actually maybe not so subtle, telling me to stop saying the sky is falling. Anyway, it doesn't matter, the people around here are still deeply scarred by black summer 2019-2020, and as a result many of them are practising solid adaptation and community-building climate change strategies even if they don't admit that that is what they are doing.

Wasn't a boomer by any chance? Well, you know, tell it to the dinosaurs is probably the best response, or tell it to the ashes of pompeii. Or pick any giant and enduring empire that is no more. Everything ends, and none of it is eschatological. I think perhaps that's the wall the doomer has to breach. We're mostly immune to end of the world predictions because religious fails, and hollywood. This however, is science and politics. But in the end it doesn't really matter, especially if they're alert to pending dangers and are preparing as best they can, that's all any of us can do. Better to make a friend than an argument.

[stylofone]

This however, is science and politics. But in the end it doesn't really matter, especially if they're alert to pending dangers and are preparing as best they can, that's all any of us can do. Better to make a friend than an argument.

Yes they are boomers, same demographic as me in a lot of ways. I'm pretty sure my neighbours somewhat unthinkingly adhere to folksy ideas about being positive and hoping for the best, rather than subscribing to deranged Sky news denialist culture wars. Also country people are so attuned to the weather. I remember the rain gauge installed by my Dad on our farm when I was 8, it was an object of power, almost like the centre of the universe to us kids. Rural people know that there are always extremes in weather, while climate is something that is assessed over a longer period, it's the same on the farm as in the BoM data centre - the practice of good climatology. And I think rural people also know that it's game over as far as the climate change debate is concerned, based on that lifelong practice of observation and practical responses to weather and climate. Now they must concede that those mad greenies were right all along and it's gonna be tough for a lot of them. I speculate that there is a sort of dignified retreat many straight people are seeking, they accept that they have to adapt to the realities of climate change, but they are wary of triumphalism from elitist wankers like me. They also want to preserve the still-viable parts of their culture. And of course they should because it's my culture too, I was a farm kid from age 5 to 18, and a country town kid for a decade after that. The elitist wankery co-exists with that background.

If the equations of my social calculus are wrong, and denialism has a greater hold, then just you wait, because those rain gauge readings are only gonna get a lot weirder, and it's going to add a new exponent to the calculations. That's when we realise that even the mad greenies were actually wrong, it's so much worse than they thought it would be.

[stylofone]

We're already at 1.5 in Australia (2022) and this year is tracking hotter than last year. Doesn't really make much sense for us here to be thinking about 1.5, under 2 degrees is more the target here.

Yes, even if you use some sort of average which puts us under 1.5, it won't last long. 1.5 and a lot higher than that
is a foregone conclusion. The scenarios which look better than that are loaded with ludicrously improbable scenarios, like Xi and Putin and Exxon and Whitehaven and Santos and all the others magically agreeing to wind up operations starting next week. Because that is effectively what they are saying when they roll out the inevitable "hopium" clause copy-pasted into every climate report detailing the impending disaster. The good news is there's still hope, we can avoid the worst effects of climate change if the major fossil fuel companies and the governments they are embedded with all wind up operations starting next week. So come on chaps, jolly well get to it please!

[stylofone]

The NSW government has a new strategy, combining its disaster preparedness campaigns under the single banner called "Get Ready NSW". I missed the main announcement, but I noticed the email campaign. Here's a screenshot of the website. The air quality monitoring site/app is also part of it. The aggregate effect is a strong post-apocalypse kind of feeling. Philip K Dick used to insert climate change and social collapse into his science fiction, but it was part of the scenery, the world-building, not the main theme of his writing. We are living in one of his futures now.

Get Ready NSW.jpg (158.37 KiB) Viewed 1382 times

[pipbarber]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... mplausible

What is there to say?

[Irrev-Black]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... mplausible

What is there to say?

"Mad Monk still mad. Pictures at eleven."

[Irrev-Black]

Picture 174 years of gradual temperature increase.

https://climatelabbook.substack.com/p/m ... ture-every

[Irrev-Black]

"If someone came from the future to warn us of this, they'd have traveled from next Wednesday..."

Nish Kumar simplifies the words of climate scientist Dr Fredi Otto.

[Irrev-Black]

Sydney - Marine heatwave, anyone?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -explained