Australian Atheists Forum

Anyone done a cost/benefit analysis on human-shaped bots -v- actual humans, in the jobs bots are supposed to take over?

A chef, for example, doesn't cost much compared to buying or leasing Crash-Test-Dummy v83.7 to make omelets. (And that's just for very rich folk: I use a Me or a Herself.)

Irrev-Black wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 6:31 pm Anyone done a cost/benefit analysis on human-shaped bots -v- actual humans, in the jobs bots are supposed to take over?

A chef, for example, doesn't cost much compared to buying or leasing Crash-Test-Dummy v83.7 to make omelets. (And that's just for very rich folk: I use a Me or a Herself.)

Some information based on investor reports like Goldman Sachs.

The investment case for humanoid robots is sizable – we estimate that in 10-15 years a market size of at least US$6bn is achievable to fill 4% of the US manufacturing labor shortage gap by 2030E and 2% of global elderly care demand by 2035E. Should the hurdles of product design, use case, technology, affordability and wide public acceptance be completely overcome, we envision a market of up to US$154bn by 2035E in a blue-sky scenario (close to that of the global EV market and one-third the global smartphone market as of 2021), which suggests labor shortage issues such as for manufacturing and elderly care can be solved to a large extent. With the supply chain likely evolving from robotics/automation, AI, self-driving, etc, we believe the best investment plays at this stage are motion components

https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/wil ... be-finally

The main factors will be cost to manufacture/maintain the robot and the functions it can perform.

Tesla are one of the few companies working specifically on a design that can be mass manufactured and are aiming for a cost of "much less than a car". The Goldman Sachs report is assuming unit costs of 50-250k but I have seen estimates at potential costs from robotics engineers of 10-20k for the hardware.

The functions the robot could perform will grow rapidly with neural nets and deep learning. The biggest hurdle will be a general navigation solution. Tesla FSD is cool but it is still far from handling real world navigation. This might not be a bottleneck though as geo-fenced navigation is a solved solution, especially for early use cases such as factories.

I doubt we will have these in our homes anytime soon but there is a lot of potential for them to take jobs in the next 10-20 years.

"Selling things" != "things being useful".

Irrev-Black wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 1:00 pm "Selling things" != "things being useful".

I agree in general but not in this case.

I'm one of those wacky utopian socialists who think we should be working on eliminating busy work so humans can instead spend their days doing fun things. Robots and AI can help with that so I'm in favor.

I don't have an answer to how we ensure all the created wealth goes to the people and creating utopia instead of to companies and creating dystopia. In fact, I am highly skeptical that that will ever happen. The fact that recent deep learning advances have resulted in a lot of quality open source work is promising but I'm not sure it will be enough.

Does the currently-over-exploited world get to ride to Utopia along with us relatively-privileged folks?

AI taking over car dealerships and making deals in the US, well when I say making, I actually mean giving away cars. $1 for a 2024 Chevy Tahoe!

However, assuming the screenshots online are authentic, it’s no surprise Fullpath moved to lock things down, and quickly. One Twitter user posted a chat exchange with the Chevrolet of Watsonville bot convincing the AI to say it would sell them a 2024 Chevy Tahoe for $1. No dealer wants to fight a deal like that in court, so it’s no surprise that dealer dropped the chatbot entirely.

https://www.theautopian.com/chevy-deale ... o-chatgpt/

The humanoid robot thing is like life extension, transhumanism, Mars colonisation, the singularity, etc.. It's not based on the scientific method, it's based on science fiction. It's a cousin of climate denial, in that they both depend on fake science to justify their false claims and ambitions.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... p-on-real/

I was searching for information about a song, and I found this website, which seems to be made entirely of AI-generated waffle. Even its contributors are artificial, although the language generator seems to have based some of them on real people.

I imagine young people getting used to this sort of bilge, and I think it could be a disaster for the quality of human knowledge. It's disgusting.

https://oldtimemusic.com/

Pic below was found on Mastodon. AI is supposed to be soooo good, but this makes it look pretty crap.

Also, I was thinking about it in the context of surveillance capitalism and the selling point of manipulating the behaviour of the audience based on knowledge of their individual situation to a granular degree.

If you persuade people to let AI help them in their personal expression, it carries the behavioural control a bit further. You can be damned sure that when you ask an AI to write a letter or whatever it is you want help with, the algorithms will also surreptitiously include language which furthers the cause of whatever the owner of the AI wants. It probably won't even be surreptitious, depending on what the aim is. Will it mention a product like McDonalds? Or maybe it will favour figurative language which mentions salty fatty food. Or if it's Musk's "grok", it will include words promoting his fascist ideas. I think this as actually a higher priority for the billionaire AI boosters than teaching AI to correctly parse the question. FOUR letters, you digital dunce.

stylofone wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:25 am Pic below was found on Mastodon. AI is supposed to be soooo good, but this makes it look pretty crap.

(SNIP)
FOUR letters, you digital dunce.

When AIs count on their fingers, they're doomed to fail.