Kamala Harris

[stevebrooks]

Well, the debate is done, Trump didn't put forward a single policy statement, ranted on about Haitians eating cats and dogs and by all accounts said nothing worth listening to, even the Republican's think it was a disaster, but Trump? Oh no, he's already been on truth social claiming that everyone said that he won bigly lol! Now let's see if it makes one iota of a difference to the polling. Oh yes, and as soon as the debate was over Kamala was asking to schedule another debate, while the orange one was saying they probably won't have another one. So who does it appears won that debate? One side wants another debate, one did so bad they are outright refusing!

Oh yes, here's Jimmmmmmmmy;

[stylofone]

Well, the debate is done, Trump didn't put forward a single policy statement, ranted on about Haitians eating cats and dogs and by all accounts said nothing worth listening to, even the Republican's think it was a disaster, but Trump? Oh no, he's already been on truth social claiming that everyone said that he won bigly lol! Now let's see if it makes one iota of a difference to the polling. Oh yes, and as soon as the debate was over Kamala was asking to schedule another debate, while the orange one was saying they probably won't have another one. So who does it appears won that debate? One side wants another debate, one did so bad they are outright refusing!

Oh yes, here's Jimmmmmmmmy;

"They're eating the cats" is insanely, stupidly funny. Trump is a laughing stock. He always has been, but somehow more than 70 million Americans have been taking him seriously. Biden's super-serious "soul of America" shtick was right in 2020, but laughing at him is a good strategy right now, and I note that Harris did exactly that when he was telling his cat story, and she wasn't acting. He fell right into her trap, she should be pretty happy with how it went. Trump is a clown, if you say "clownie" everyone knows who you mean. Clown is his pronoun. My contempt for the clown knows no bounds.

[pipbarber]

I didn't watch it but i've read a few reports and seen some clips. The most important thing was that it wasn't a total fucking train wreck, like Biden's effort. So long as she didn't completely fuck up, which she clearly didn't, then Trump looks idiotic. Maybe if there really are any undecided voters left they might go out and vote Dems, hopefully. Did it turn any Trump voters? Who knows. The polling in key states is still very close - 7 weeks to go.

[Loki]

It's not about convincing undecided voters.

If there are any then they've been living in the prepper Hilton (i.e. a steel lined hole in their back yard ( i.e. a bomb shelter) waiting for the apocalypse, or some sort of medically mandated assisted living.

It's about convincing people to actually be bothered making the effort to vote.

And it's a nasty problem. If Kamala can't excite people to go vote for her then they ain't voting down the ticket and that affects governors and senators and and reps and and school boards and and sherrifs and DA's and and all the initiatives to build reproductive choice into state constitutions.

So yes, Kamala can't just win. She has to be exciting while winning. Yay

[joele]

Betting odds have shifted, poor Donald tens of millions of Americans fired him now they are going to refuse to rehire him.. How will his ego cope?

From Sportsbet

Screenshot 2024-09-12 235312.png (33.08 KiB) Viewed 344 times

[stylofone]

After her endorsement of Harris I listened to Taylor Swift for the first time. Yes I do live under a rock. Her music is not for me, but I still appreciate the cat-lady declaration. As an old fart I will be enjoying the music of Linda Ronstadt today.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... zona-rally

[stevebrooks]

News.com at it again. On the basis of a single outlying poll they declaring Trump ahead and Kamala in deep trouble:

Donald Trump has not just stopped Kamala Harris’s momentum, but has overtaken her to lead in a series of key swing states, according to one of America’s most highly rated polls.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-ame ... ef5a7f0812

Meanwhile in the real world;

Kamala Harris yet again takes her largest lead yet against Donald Trump in national polling

[pipbarber]

News.com at it again. On the basis of a single outlying poll they declaring Trump ahead and Kamala in deep trouble:

Donald Trump has not just stopped Kamala Harris’s momentum, but has overtaken her to lead in a series of key swing states, according to one of America’s most highly rated polls.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-ame ... ef5a7f0812

Meanwhile in the real world;

Kamala Harris yet again takes her largest lead yet against Donald Trump in national polling

Against that is this:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... mp-support

To be honest i trust the betting markets more than polling and they have (mostly) Harris very slightly in front, but only just. 'Only just,' i might doom predict, could turn into a complete disaster. But even if you follow the polling, Trump is close in the 7 key states that decide the election (behind in most last time i saw a meta review) but not far enough behind for a win to be possible. It's incredible.

Then factor in voter intimidation and other election day tactics from the maga death cult....it's all very possible.

[stevebrooks]

News.com at it again. On the basis of a single outlying poll they declaring Trump ahead and Kamala in deep trouble:

Donald Trump has not just stopped Kamala Harris’s momentum, but has overtaken her to lead in a series of key swing states, according to one of America’s most highly rated polls.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-ame ... ef5a7f0812

Meanwhile in the real world;

Kamala Harris yet again takes her largest lead yet against Donald Trump in national polling

Against that is this:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... mp-support

To be honest i trust the betting markets more than polling and they have (mostly) Harris very slightly in front, but only just. 'Only just,' i might doom predict, could turn into a complete disaster. But even if you follow the polling, Trump is close in the 7 key states that decide the election (behind in most last time i saw a meta review) but not far enough behind for a win to be possible. It's incredible.

Then factor in voter intimidation and other election day tactics from the maga death cult....it's all very possible.

True it's hard to trust polling, however every indication in most state level polls indicate undercounting of the dems not the republicans. Races that the R's expect to win easily are much closer or sometimes lost. Most polls don't take into account the large number of first time voters who are registering due to the abortion issue and the influence of Taylor Swift and others. I am cautiously optimistic, the problem with the undercounting and overcounting of the past years is it has set the pollsters an impossible task of trying to account artificially for a factor that they have idea the magnitude or even direction of. They could be undercounting dems, they could be undercounting repubs, but they have no idea if they are or not.

Popular numbers seem to be swinging Harris' way but as we know popular numbers don't win an election in the USA, it's all swing states, I mean numbers on the ground are putting both Florida and Texas far more left than they were with the Biden election, maybe not in the range of turning dem, but the polls are no longer a good prediction of what the actual support for a candidate is, you have to look at local elections and things like that to see which way the wind is blowing, and state and local elections seem to be trending very much to the left. It will be a nail biter for the whole world that's for sure, Harris needs to win by enough to make any challenge top legitimacy seem silly, that's a hard ask.

[stylofone]

True it's hard to trust polling, however every indication in most state level polls indicate undercounting of the dems not the republicans. Races that the R's expect to win easily are much closer or sometimes lost. Most polls don't take into account the large number of first time voters who are registering due to the abortion issue and the influence of Taylor Swift and others. I am cautiously optimistic, the problem with the undercounting and overcounting of the past years is it has set the pollsters an impossible task of trying to account artificially for a factor that they have idea the magnitude or even direction of. They could be undercounting dems, they could be undercounting repubs, but they have no idea if they are or not.

An analysis which tends to support your optimistic view, although it's couched with many caveats about the weakness of polling these days.

https://archive.is/b5BzM

Ever since Donald J. Trump’s stunning victory in 2016 — when he lost the popular vote by almost three million votes but still triumphed with over 300 electoral votes — many who follow politics have believed Republicans hold an intractable advantage in the Electoral College.
But there’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: His once formidable advantage in the Electoral College is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking.

archive link above, original article below:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/upsh ... arris.html