Donald Trump

[pipbarber]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... iden-polls

I really give polling very little credence. National polls are especially pointless in the presidential race because the purple states are all that matter. The only certainty is that Biden will win the popular vote, so nationalised polls that put him well in front are probably accurate but that doesn't mean anything.

I take no comfort from Biden doing better in the poll results up-thread, but i do take some comfort in the notion that surely enough people in the swing states will see that Trump is completely unhinged and they won't vote for him. (I did think that in 2016 too).

Anyway, the 'surveys' in the article are from New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. I have no idea of methodology or how independent they are.

[stevebrooks]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... iden-polls

I really give polling very little credence. National polls are especially pointless in the presidential race because the purple states are all that matter. The only certainty is that Biden will win the popular vote, so nationalised polls that put him well in front are probably accurate but that doesn't mean anything.

I take no comfort from Biden doing better in the poll results up-thread, but i do take some comfort in the notion that surely enough people in the swing states will see that Trump is completely unhinged and they won't vote for him. (I did think that in 2016 too).

Anyway, the 'surveys' in the article are from New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. I have no idea of methodology or how independent they are.

Oh yes I certainly concede your point, since Trump has never won a popular vote yet was still President is strange, that his opponents, in both election, both won the popular vote, Biden by a huge margin but still only won the election by a small amount is food for thought, but national polls gibe a feeling for the electorate, what attracts votes and what pushes them away and then you should be using that in the swing states. Alas there are some people who never change vote no matter what, but those are the people you shouldn't be chasing.

[pipbarber]

It's just so incredible to me that he could, as unlikely as it is, be president again. It's just so surreal. Mortality is the only thing that will rid the world of him. Although, I'd place a small wager that one of his ridiculous son's will immediately attempt to enter politics as soon as the funeral is done with. Perhaps human extinction is the only way to get rid of the Trumps.

[joele]

Omfg, so this is John McEntee, he was Trumps former director of the White House Office of Presidential Personnel. No.indication he won't be back, pretty sure this horrific display of arrogance and cruelty won't bother Trump.

He did say it is just a joke, but cmon...

https://www.tiktok.com/@daterightstuff/ ... 18?lang=en

[pipbarber]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... ebate-date

I shudder to think what debates between these two will be like. I suppose they'll neatly represent the decay of electoral democracy, which is probably not a bad thing, the representation i mean. It would really make more sense to have a debate between the military, the fossil fuel industry, Elon Musk, a bunch of corporate CEOs and billionaires. But why would any of them bother?

[stylofone]

This official campaign ad looks pretty effective to me. Let's hope it works, and that they can keep it up.

[stevebrooks]

You know it just occurred to me that maybe we are looking at the completely wrong place for polling data on Trumps likelihood of becoming President. It comes to me that traditional polling methods in the current climate of fake news and disinformation are entirely useless. So where should we look for this important data? There is, I think, one single place that does actually reflect the popularity and election chances of Trump. Where is that you ask? Well no place other than Truth Social, the social media platform that Trump has touted to all his followers.

Surely if Trump was becoming more popular and attracting more followers and voters the numbers of users should be going up, I mean everyone knows about Truth Social, you would have to be dead to not have heard about it during his speeches, on TV and radio, in the printed news, during the court cases etc. Basically it's everywhere, so of course it reflects an actual value of people following Trump. It's not biased in any way, it's simply there for people to follow or not follow as the case may be. It's very likely as good a place as any to get an idea of Trump popularity.

So good news then, the userbase of Truth Social has dropped by 39% over the last 12 months.

It's like this, there will be a base following, a lot of media both left wing and right wing will have accounts simply because it is where Trump posts, they need to keep an eye on it, so the rest are a mixture of left and right wing folks who follow out of desire to support Trump or simply morbid curiosity. If Trumps chances of winning election were getting better it should surely be reflected in an upswing of users on his own Social Media platform. I mean not everyone uses social media, but it shouldn't drop so much right?

https://imgur.com/gallery/guy-who-claim ... ia-TQkSsmg

[Irrev-Black]

Cue weaseling and bluster.

Donald Trump has been found guilty of falsifying business records, a felony that could result in prison time.

He will be sentenced on July 11.

The former US president pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, to conceal a payment made to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign.

The jury in the New York criminal trial returned its verdict after less than two days of deliberations. It found him guilty on all 34 counts.

Mr Trump also still faces three other criminal cases – two relating to alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election result, and one over the handling of classified documents.

However, they are unlikely to go to trial before the presidential election in November, where polls predict a close contest between Mr Trump and incumbent Joe Biden.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-31/ ... /103910472

[pipbarber]

I must admit, i'm surprised he was found guilty, but great. I read that legal opinion appears to be that he won't get jail time for a host of reasons, but a fine and even community service are likely and of course he'll appeal. So perhaps nothing much will happen before the election but you'd think it would be a bit of a blow for his electoral chances. I mean the law and order conservatives, and boomers, might be a bit put off by voting for a felon? Perhaps it'll have the opposite impact. Not even the deep state can put him away! Who the fuck knows, America has lost its mind, anything could happen.

[Irrev-Black]

Too good to not share.