Climate Change

[wadaye]

Listen to Catton Overshoot 2 by Michael Dowd on #SoundCloud
https://on.soundcloud.com/L7rhW

[Irrev-Black]

Poped!

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[stylofone]

It can't be more than what we already know, that the system is headed for a head-on collision and over the cliff through overshoot.

When you say 'we'....

Anecdotally, i'm constantly flabbergasted by how indifferent my family and friends are to the immediate threat that the climate catastrophe poses despite most of these people being firmly on the left and fully supportive of climate action. Amongst my broader connections, no one thinks about climate change, ever.

I'd wager that the majority are not overly concerned. It's still an issue for 2100, or 2050....at best. So a big report that says 'we're fucked' would indeed be news for most, in my view.

Moreover, the economic impact on a systemic level would be immediately profound. Why would anyone buy a 40 year mortgage? Why save? Why work that bullshit job? Why go into debt, or why not go into debt?

The economic rationalism the system is built on might be seriously compromised by a 'we're fucked' report and no government is brave enough to face that.

Things are moving fast and what seems like a progressive and sensible approach can turn into just another form of denial when it is overtaken by events which reveal it to be unrealistic, inadequate, a fantasy. So the energy transistion, or "saving the world by buying Teslas" now rings very hollow. But people haven't caught up with that yet.

So we move on to move substantial ideas, e.g. a complete overhaul of society and culture, like the big idea of "degrowth". I just saw a review for one of the major books about this concept and I thought, yeah, I should get on board and educate myself more about degrowth.

Then I read another review which said, nah, the degrowth thing is also misleading because it assumes we can make these changes and have a bright future. In fact, what we need to do is have a complete overhaul of society and culture to prepare for collapse. It's pointless denialism to pretend we can avert disaster. Degrowth isn't a choice, it's happening anyway in ways we can't control. To use another form of disaster as a metaphor, don't use your hands to splash water on the sandcastle of capitalism when there's a tsunami coming in 30 seconds. Get ready for the tsunami!

And look at the date on this review; 2020. I really am behind the times!

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... th-review/

[pipbarber]

Things are moving fast and what seems like a progressive and sensible approach can turn into just another form of denial when it is overtaken by events which reveal it to be unrealistic, inadequate, a fantasy. So the energy transistion, or "saving the world by buying Teslas" now rings very hollow. But people haven't caught up with that yet.

So we move on to move substantial ideas, e.g. a complete overhaul of society and culture, like the big idea of "degrowth". I just saw a review for one of the major books about this concept and I thought, yeah, I should get on board and educate myself more about degrowth.

Then I read another review which said, nah, the degrowth thing is also misleading because it assumes we can make these changes and have a bright future. In fact, what we need to do is have a complete overhaul of society and culture to prepare for collapse. It's pointless denialism to pretend we can avert disaster. Degrowth isn't a choice, it's happening anyway in ways we can't control. To use another form of disaster as a metaphor, don't use your hands to splash water on the sandcastle of capitalism when there's a tsunami coming in 30 seconds. Get ready for the tsunami!

And look at the date on this review; 2020. I really am behind the times!

At this point, all these 'solutions' are a bit like counterfactual narratives of the type historians sometimes indulge in. "What would have happened if...'

So, in light of that....At the moment in time when a degrowth movement, a degrowth ethos, might have worked in limiting global heating we decided to go down the opposite path and introduce neoliberal economic theory, which we still have. Or even as late as the 1990s we might have chosen a degrowth economics which may have provided time to transition away from fossil fuels and avoid the worst case scenarios. But no. That's not what we did and here we are.

I've been thinking a lot about Roberto Benigni's Life is Beautiful. Probably a reasonable disposition to adopt at this point.

[stylofone]

I need to re-watch "Life is Beautiful".

Meanwhile I'm running simulated arguments about climate action and my newfound doomer stance.

Some of the media coverage assumes that doomerism is a kind of mental illness, or perhaps a conspiracy theory adjacent to denialism, kind of like saying "the end of the world is nigh". A new millenarianism. I personally embrace evidence-based approaches (like atheism) with a kind of joy. It's a relief not to be deceived. It's not depression or some other mental condition. Maybe this is my version of the "Life is Beautiful" approach. Also, governments' unrealistic climate plans depending on CCS, offsets and other fantasies suggest it's the energy transition "act now before it's too late" brigade that are the deniers. But let's not finger-point and call people names. People try to do what's right, acting collectively seems noble and it can mask the fact that the collective action being taken needs a major rethink. "Doomers are crazy" or "doomers are just depressed" is a trap, it's like taking the bait of a social media engagement algorithm, because name-calling generates clicks.

Being a doomer doesn't mean I expect human extinction, just that the evidence doesn't point to mitigation strategies working. In part this is because the strategies aren't actually in place yet. Emissions are continuing to grow. Even the anti-doomer arguments actually back my position... for example, the scientist in the BBC's anti-doomer article says it's not too late, but "we have to stop emitting". We haven't stopped yet, so presumably that means that it might as well be too late.

I'll stop being a doomer when emissions stop. So my doomerism is not based solely on an assessment of the climate, it's also prompted by politics, economics, psychology. People won't take the action needed, even now when the disaster is accelerating. It's an addiction. We are still opening new coal and gas projects; China is still building coal-fired power stations; powerful political forces (e.g. US Republicans and the religious right) are still blocking action. Labor and the US Democrats still cling to an economic growth model which collapses without fossil fuels. Even the Greens tacitly support this failed idea through their participation in the system.

The other important point is that the doomer stance does not mean we are opposed to taking action, or that action is futile. I can't say with precision just what it is that we are doomed to. What I am saying is that it won't be business as usual, it WILL be a catastrophe which will radically transform the way we live, and we won't be able to preserve the status quo by switching from a Toyota Hllux to a Tesla Model Y. You'd have to be nuts to believe that, which is a riposte to those who claim doomerism is a symptom of mental illness.

Why it's not too late

Climate scientist Dr Friederike Otto, who has been working with the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says: "I don't think it's helpful to pretend that climate change will lead to humanity's extinction."

In its most recent report, the IPCC laid out a detailed plan that it believes could help the world avoid the worst impacts of rising temperatures.

It involves "rapid, deep and immediate" cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases - which trap the sun's heat and make the planet hotter.

"There is no denying that there are large changes across the globe, and that some of them are irreversible," says Dr Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment.

"It doesn't mean the world is going to end - but we have to adapt, and we have to stop emitting."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-61495035

Another anti doomer article from the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... un-report/

[Irrev-Black]

The money people appear to have done their sums on shit falling apart...

peterdutoit@mastodon.green
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green

Have you wondered how Insurance companies reached the decision to pullout of certain areas in the US?

(Which btw will shortly be global phenomenon)

Then wonder no more.

This from The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, University of Exeter:

https://actuaries.org.uk/media/qeydewmk ... foa_23.pdf

This is collapse.



#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #Collapse

[pipbarber]

There's some good data in that actuary report. That high risk scenarios and events are happening at much lower levels of overall warming than was predicted is an interesting disclosure. The general tone of it being too late to do anything 'incremental' and that whole systemic action has to happen is somberly refreshing. One would hope that this actuary report finds its way into the liberal party tea room, or the ALPs, though i'm not sure any of them would bother reading it and that is a point that the actuaries might well have taken into account when they said, 'it's too late.'

Yes, El Nino declared for here, but also Indian Ocean Dipole was declared to be in a positive phase. Double whammy! Each reinforcing the other. Water shortages in prospect, one fears.

[Irrev-Black]

No sacrifices.

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[Irrev-Black]

Here's a few thousand words' worth.

[stylofone]

The contract for my new house included an "instant-on" gas hot water system, because it met the requirements for energy-efficient houses, known as BASIX in NSW. I used a budget builder, and he seemed reluctant to make variations as he was quite diligent at keeping prices down and sticking with what he knew. So I didn't press the issue, I thought I'd give the dreaded gas system a try and replace it if I didn't like it.

Well I don't like it, so today I rang a solar hot water installer who immediately mentioned that I could qualify for two rebates, one state and one federal... one of them is for installing solar, and the other one is for removing gas.

So it seems there are regulations which categorise both installing AND removing gas hot water as measures to increase sustainability. Well that was what I was told on the phone, it remains to be seen if I'll qualify. Of course I'll take the rebate if I can, but it sounds pretty crazy. On the other hand it's not all that different to the idea that owning a Tesla model Y - two tonnes of steel and lithium - is a good thing to do for the climate.